Tiered AGI Preparedness: A Framework, Not a Bunker

Why tiers, not one plan

Treating “AGI risk” as a single scenario to prep for leads to either paralysis or overreaction. A tiered framework matches the response to the severity and likelihood of the scenario, the same way sound emergency planning does for any other long-tail risk.

Tier 1 — Disruption (weeks)

Job market shock, service outages, information chaos following a major AI-driven event. This is the most likely tier by far, and the one this manual’s Protecting Your Family section is built around: financial diversification, digital identity hardening, and verified-communication habits.

Tier 2 — Regional instability (weeks to months)

Infrastructure strain or supply disruption serious enough to require standard household emergency preparedness: water, food, power, medical, and communications reserves sized to your household, the same category of planning recommended for any regional disaster by agencies like FEMA and Ready.gov — AI-specific only in what triggers it, not in what it requires.

Tier 3 — Severe, extended disruption (months or more)

A genuine long-tail scenario. The evidence is consistent across disaster research generally: past a certain severity, the household that fares best is not the one with the most stockpiled supplies, but the one embedded in a functioning local community — see Community and Local Networks.

Using this framework honestly

Most households should invest the bulk of their preparation in Tier 1 and Tier 2, which are far more probable and where preparation is cheap and broadly useful regardless of cause. Tier 3 preparation should be proportionate — relationships and skills, not an all-or-nothing posture.